Is there such a thing as overconfidence?

Overconfidence has been called the mother of all psychological biases. First, overconfidence is one of the largest and most frequently found biases to which human judgment is vulnerable. The second way overconfidence earns its title as the mother of all biases is by validating the other decision-making biases. Overconfidence ended Napoleon’s plans for victory in 1812, sunk the Titanic in 1912, and in 2001, finished off Enron, once one of the largest and most respected energy companies in the world. If we use a Bible story as an example of overconfidence, we find that all four Gospels record where the overconfident Apostle Peter denies Jesus three times on the night of Jesus’  betrayal in the courtyard of the high priest¹The story of Peter’s denial of Jesus is told in the following passages of Scripture: Matthew 26:33-35, 69-75; Mark 14:29-31,66-72; Luke 22:31-34, 54-62; John 13:36-38, 18:25-27, 21:15-19.. We are all encouraged to be confident in our faith, in the work of our Savior on the Cross, and our eventual eternal glory. But is there such a thing as being overconfident?

(1 Corinthians 10:12)²NIV New International Version Translations – “So, if you think you are standing firm, be careful that you don’t fall!”

Peter was very sure of his faith. “Even though all may fall away because of You, I will never fall away.” Jesus said to him, “Truly I say to you that this very night, before a rooster crows, you will deny Me three times. (Matthew 26:33-34)” Jesus knew better. When we are faced with the real fears of life, our human response to survive kicks in. If we are to take the Apostle Paul’s advice and “be careful,” what does that entail?

To begin, there is a subtle, but important, difference between confidence and arrogance. Both are related to self-esteem, the way that a person feels about themselves. Confidence comes from a high intrinsic value, and understanding that self-worth isn’t measured by achievements, failures, or the opinions of others. Remember, we were created by God in His image! Arrogance, however, comes from a sense of superiority over others. Unfortunately, the only way to sustain an attitude of arrogance is to keep others in their (so-called) place. To make sound decisions in life, to have healthy relationships with others, and to avoid a life of mistakes, our world requires that you approach life with a plan. We will look at both a secular set of guidelines for living and overlay our Scriptures for building a “confident” faith-filled life.

A great starting point is to regularly reflect on one’s abilities, knowledge, and limitations. Time in contemplation and prayer is worth its weight in gold. There is also a reason why regular worship attendance and group Bible studies are healthy for adults and children. It is in these safe settings that people can listen to others who also share their faith walk, compare life stories, and be open to feedback and/or even criticism from others. These are the places where self-improvement can take place. The verse below emphasizes the value of heeding correction and learning from it to gain understanding and wisdom.

(Proverbs 15:31-32) – “Whoever heeds life-giving correction will be at home among the wise. Those who disregard discipline despise themselves, but the one who heeds correction gains understanding.”

Surrounding ourselves with people who challenge our ideas and beliefs will encourage open and honest discussions with others to gain different viewpoints. We should avoid echo chambers where our views are constantly reinforced without critical examination. The Bible encourages believers to engage in dialogue, seek counsel, and interact with others in a way that fosters their personal and spiritual growth. Surrounding yourself with people who challenge your ideas and beliefs can lead to greater understanding, wisdom, and a more robust faith if the interactions are conducted in a spirit of respect and humility. It’s important to engage in such interactions with an open heart and a willingness to learn and grow rather than simply to win arguments.

(Proverbs 1:5) – “Let the wise listen and add to their learning, and let the discerning get guidance.”

We must recognize that the world is complex and unpredictable, and not everything can be fully known or controlled. A little humility goes a long way. It is healthy to acknowledge that you don’t have all the answers. When making decisions, we should always consider the potential for unexpected outcomes and factor in a margin of error. Trust in God’s wisdom. The call to faith in God is to seek His guidance in navigating the complexities of life. The passage below reminds us that God’s understanding and plans are beyond our comprehension, highlighting the complexity of His divine wisdom.

(Isaiah 55:8-9) – “For my thoughts are not your thoughts, neither are your ways my ways, declares the Lord. As the heavens are higher than the earth, so are my ways higher than your ways and my thoughts than your thoughts.”

Making good decisions in life requires a process for life. The failure to fully consider the “causes and effects” of one’s decisions and actions leads to nothing more than regrets. “And he went out and wept bitterly” (Luke 11:64). Peter was overwhelmed by the events of Jesus’ arrest, trial, beating, and pending death. Fear and doubt crippled his ability to think through the events of that night. Taking time, thinking through our decisions, praying to God for guidance, and relying on the Holy Spirit for inspiration, will do more to comfort a weeping soul than humanity’s best salve.

(Proverbs 14:15) – “The simple believe anything, but the prudent give thought to their steps.”

Our world often teaches that “you can do anything.” Unfortunately, along with this lofty goal often comes disappointment. Achievable goals require planning, preparation, education, practice, and dedication. It is also good to assess your progress periodically and adjust expectations when necessary to avoid overestimating your abilities or outcomes. For example, the passage below underscores the importance of counting the cost and planning carefully before embarking on a project or goal. The same holds for one’s faith. What are your plans to strengthen your faith in Jesus? Do you have a plan? Is there an educational component to your life to learn about your Savior? How is your dedication to your goal going?

(Luke 14:28-30) – “Suppose one of you wants to build a tower. Won’t you first sit down and estimate the cost to see if you have enough money to complete it? For if you lay the foundation and are not able to finish it, everyone who sees it will ridicule you, saying, ‘This person began to build and wasn’t able to finish.'”

The process of knowing Jesus is a journey. The destination is spending eternity with Him. Building a personal relationship requires that we get to know who Jesus is, why He came, what He did for humanity, and what our role is in Jesus’ plan of Salvation. The Gospel’s message has a human component to it. We are asked to participate in this world while living in His world waiting for the next. One’s faith walk is meant to keep us curious, always learning and growing. The verse below encourages believers to approach their work and endeavors with dedication, which can include the pursuit of knowledge and skill. It is called the “Good News” for a reason!

(Colossians 3:23-24) – “Whatever you do, work at it with all your heart, as working for the Lord, not for human masters, since you know that you will receive an inheritance from the Lord as a reward. It is the Lord Christ you are serving.”

In our world today, those who have placed their trust in Jesus will no doubt be told they are wrong. This world hates that which is good! This world hates Jesus. Whether you realize it or not, there is an assault on your beliefs. It is OK to ask yourself why you hold certain views and whether they are based on evidence or personal biases. The world tells us that there is no God and to place our faith and trust in governments. Practice mindful meditation and prayer to become more aware of your thoughts and emotions. Engage in regular self-reflection to assess your behavior and decisions. The verse below encourages believers to test and critically evaluate teachings and beliefs, holding on to what is good and true.

(1 Thessalonians 5:21) – “But test them all; hold on to what is good.”

Finally, recognize that you are ultimately accountable for your actions and decisions, both positive and negative. How confident are you in what you believe? You will not get out of this world alive! Faith requires a willingness to admit when we are wrong and take responsibility for our mistakes. Repentance requires a change in direction that includes a reliance on Jesus Christ. Overconfidence is to think that you can make it to heaven on your own. It just doesn’t work that way.

(Romans 14:12) – “So then, each of us will give an account of ourselves to God.” This verse underscores the ultimate accountability of every person to God for their actions and decisions.

Conclusion

In summary, the Bible teaches us that we will ultimately answer to God for how we live our lives. We are encouraged to use self-examination, confession of wrongdoing, and the pursuit of righteousness and good deeds, while at the same time, recognizing that God’s mercy and forgiveness are available to those who seek them through faith and repentance. After Peter’s denial, Jesus lovingly forgave and restored him to a place of trust. Peter was the “rock” that Jesus built His church upon (Matthew 16:18). Jesus forgives and restores those who place their faith and trust in Him to a meaningful purpose in His service. In this, we can be confident!

Contemplations

• Do you see the link between bias and overconfidence?
  • Ideas to Explore: Bias can cloud logic and self-reflection. Overconfidence is often valued by society, whereas righteous confidence is viewed as a weakness. Hatred often hides bias.
• Why is self-reflection in short supply in our society today?
  • Ideas to Explore: Too many people claim to be experts. Lust for power. Too busy.
• Is it important in life to have thought through the hard issues ahead of time?
  • Ideas to Explore: Should youth think through ethical quandaries in advance? Group discussions give multiple perspectives in advance of life’s crises.
• Where do youth get to think and talk through hard ethical issues, those about life and death choices?
  • Ideas to Explore: Are our educational institutions failing here? Is there an open and honest dialogue happening in church youth groups? Can social media function with these topics? Have our family structures degraded?
• How do you personally protect yourself against becoming arrogant?
  • Ideas to Explore: Asking others to hold you accountable. Practicing humility through servanthood. Spending time with Scriptures. Please add more.
• When was the last time you participated in a discussion about death?
  • Ideas to Explore: Death is shocking, fearful, sometimes painful, and typically comes as a surprise. If your faith says don’t fear it, you should be the first to lead the discussion.